The Road Ahead for Myanmar

May 1, 2012
By Raphaël Jaeger
Southeast Asia Globe

The National League for Democracy’s landslide victory in the latest by-elections is a strong sign that Myanmar’s long-standing junta has finally outlived even its own perceptions of state health and functionality.

Nevertheless, after decades of ruling the country with an iron fist and allowing state institutions to become barely functional rubble, it is hard not to question the future viability of the country and its institutions.

Can Myanmar escape the trappings of a failed state and withstand the social, economic and political pressures it faces to avoid implosion?

A failed state cannot or will not fulfil its obligations under the social contract to provide essential services and security to the population, which can lead to instability and conflict. In the case of Myanmar, there is limited institutional and technical capacity to implement some of the reform measures being adopted.

Other symptoms of a vulnerable state are the loss of physical control of territory, or the loss of a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Additionally, most weak and fragile states exhibit disharmonies between communities as there are no formal processes for the airing of grievances.

In spite of the ceasefires with most of Myanmar’s ethnic insurgencies, no peace agreements have been signed and many speculate that the recent ‘peace’ is only skin deep. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Kachin people were reportedly displaced in recent months and some speculate that it is ‘business as usual’ within the country despite the purported governmental reforms.

Crime & Terrorism in the Tri-Border Area

Published April 11, 2012
By Felipe Umaña
Briefing TTCVR1208
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

The Tri-Border Area is formed by the junction of three different cities: Puerto Iguazú, Argentina; Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil; and Ciudad del Este, Paraguay. Located in the eastern-central part of the Southern Cone in South America, the triple frontier region is known for its impressive Iguaçu Falls – a group of cataracts that draw over 700,000 tourists each year – and other natural sites throughout the the Iguazú National Park. The region is also notable for being the home of the world’s largest hydroelectric plant, the Itaipu Dam.

Demographically, the area is very ethnically diverse. In addition to the native Paraguayans, Brazilians, and Argentine populations, there are also substantial pockets of people of Chinese, Colombian, Iranian, Italian, Korean, Lebanese, Palestinian, Taiwanese, and Ukrainian descent. The triple frontier boasts a large Arab minority presence of around 10,000 and 75,000 people, mostly from Lebanon and Palestine.

Of the three cities that form the Tri-Border Area, Ciudad del Este is the largest and busiest, serving as the region’s economic center. Its streets are regularly clogged with street merchants, shoppers, cambistas (informal currency exchangers), and others that help fuel its burgeoning economy. In fact, Ciudad del Este has ranked third worldwide in cash transactions, averaging well over US$12 billion annually in the early 2000s.2 Foz do Iguaçu, which boasts some of the region’s most frequented tourist destinations (including Latin America’s largest mosque), is the second largest city. Puerto Iguazú rounds out the trio in terms of population size.

Kony 2012: Seeking Ugandan Voices

March 19, 2012
By Patricia Taft and Nate Haken
Christian Science Monitor

Since the Kony 2012 video about atrocities in Uganda went viral, there has been a backlash and counter-backlash over the campaign by Invisible Children to stop Joseph Kony and his rebels. Lost in the debate: the need to include the voices of Ugandans.

No doubt: The crimes of Joseph Kony are monstrous. And now, thanks to Invisible Children’s Kony 2012 campaign, millions more know about how he and his rag-tag forces destroyed communities and lives throughout northern Uganda and large swaths of East and Central Africa. The forcible conscription of children, the amputations, the sexual violence, and the pillaging of villages are Mr. Kony’s calling card. The predation began over 20 years ago. It continues to this day – though no longer in northern Uganda. It must be stopped.

Since the Kony 2012 internet video went viral, there has been a backlash and counter-backlash.

The backlash criticized Invisible Children for oversimplifying the issue. Certainly for those of us who have lived in Uganda and who have spent years working on these issues, it is difficult not to cringe at the missing nuance and the fast-and-loose treatment of history.

Economic Development in the New Libya

Published February 29, 2012
By J. J. Messner
Briefing SGCAR1206
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

Libya is currently undergoing a period of reconstruction after having endured a months-long civil war that brought to an end over four decades of dictatorial rule by Colonel Muammar al-Qadhafi. As the country stabilizes and rebuilds, there will be significant interest in new and renewed investment in the country. It will be necessary for businesses to understand the challenges facing Libya in the short- and medium-term and to invest and operate responsibly in the country.

Only the rapid and urgent creation of economic opportunity carries the power to prevent the worsening of a multitude of potential conflict drivers. Increased investment will be a key catalyst for these economic opportunities and such investment will require a more secure and stable operating environment. This security and stability will be reliant on professional and adequately trained state security forces. The international community is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this window of opportunity to engage the Libyan government, and in turn provide technical assistance to pursue the objective of security sector reform and capacity building in the “New Libya.”

Guiding Principles & Nuclear Proliferation

Published February 15, 2012
By Ed Nagle
Briefing TTCVR1204
Report available in PDF and Flash formats

Not long after the dawn of the nuclear age, few experts were optimistic that the spread of nuclear weapons could be contained. In 1963 it was anticipated that fifteen to twenty nations would likely come to possess nuclear weapons, let alone nuclear power, by the 1970s.1 It is easy to lose sight of this in contemporary discussions on nuclear proliferation. Yet at present we are faced with renewed pressure from state and non-state actors who desire to acquire nuclear arms. The apparent success of North Korea and potential success of Iran have created new regional pressures that have the potential to greatly increase the number of nuclear weapons states to a point not unlike President John F. Kennedy’s grim prediction in 1963. The years since the end of the Cold War have seen not only a transformation of the security environment, but also an evolution in the means and motives for procuring nuclear arms.

UNLocK Data Visualization

The UNLocK project is a participatory early warning initiative that The Fund for Peace is implementing in Uganda, Nigeria and Liberia, in collaboration with local partners, which include Liberia Democracy Watch (LDW) and the Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law (IHRHL). Visualizing the UNLocK data on an interactive web map allows for multi-dimensional analysis of conflict risk factors as reported by civil society participants on the ground. Liberia’s Early Warning and Response Network, which uses Ushahidi as a platform, is one such example. Practitioners who work on issues relating to relief and development can search the data by indicator, time period, and location, to identify concerns and priorities of the network.

In-depth Content Analysis Assessments

The Failed States Index itself is just one of the many capabilities of The Fund for Peace’s content analysis framework and software. The framework and software have many other applications including specific risk assessment, and in-depth national-, regional- and provincial-level analysis.

To demonstrate the power of our content analysis tool, we have created a sample visualization of content analysis trends in Balochistan, Pakistan, for the two-year period from May 2009, including illustrative events and issues flagged by content anslyis behind the various spikes.

Somalia Tops the Failed States Index

June 20, 2011
By J. J. Messner
The Failed States Index

If the Failed States Index were a championship, then Somalia would be the undisputed four-time champion (or cellar-dweller, depending on how you look at it). In the seven years of the Failed States Index, Somalia has had the ignominious distinction of occupying the worst spot for the past four years straight. Despite having a relatively functional and pretty much autonomous ‘state’ in the north, Somaliland, the country as a whole still manages to score badly enough to make up for that glimmer of unrecognized hope. Worse still, the country is in no danger of losing its position anytime soon. A combination of widespread lawlessness, ineffective government, terrorism, insurgency, crime, abysmal development and a penchant for inconveniencing the rest of the world by taking their merchant vessels hostage has given Somalia a score that – much as they seem to try – neither Chad, Sudan, Zimbabwe nor the Democratic Republic of Congo can hope to match.

   

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